Sports Trading is a form of betting which occurs in events with
usually two or occasionally three outcomes. You are using the
fluctuation in prices during an event to give you a
Profit, Whatever the
Outcome. Typical examples would be
a tennis match, a cricket one day international , more or less than 2.5 goals in a football match. In each
case you must be Betting in
Running, i.e. betting whilst the match is in
progress. The aim is to get into a position where you will Win
Whatever the Outcome of the match.
As an example, assume you are betting in a tennis match between
and Murray. Before the game starts the odds might be
You cannot trade at those prices. What you can do is back
at 1.9, and wait till the game goes In-Play on
Betfair. At this
moment, all unmatched bets are cancelled, and a new market if formed, this
time the market will react almost immediately to every point in the
game. Meanwhile you can calculate what %profit you want from your
trade. To do this go to the formula worksheet in
the , and enter the price you backed
Nadal at into cell B6,
then enter the price you want to back Murray at in cell C6, lets say 2.22,
the %age profit is shown in cell E6, 2.38% in this case. Now enter
the stake you put on Nadal into cell B7 , let's say £300, and the
required stake for Murray is shown in cell C7, £256.76 in this case, now
all you do is go back to Betfair and place this bet on
if at any point during the match Murray's price drifts to 2.22, your bet
will be matched, giving you a profit of £13.24 whoever wins the game
eventually. It's amazing how much the price fluctuates in a tennis
match, and >95% of the time your bet will be matched. Not all the
time though, and that's the catch. So, in this section are presented
some trading systems which do make regular profits.
This is a system I have developed for cricket one day internationals,
although I have now extended it to English domestic competitions.
It's simple really, you back the favourite in a one day match just before
or after the start, then back the other team for a 10% profit (using the
as usual) as soon as the match starts. One slight peculiarity with
cricket is that the toss can have a large bearing on the perceived
outcome, so there can be some big price fluctuations in the half hour or
so between the toss and the match starting, so unless you want to
gamble on the toss, wait till the market settles down when the toss result is
Some lessons I have learned are
Avoid dead rubbers - i.e. games at the end of a series when the series
is already decided - you never know who will be rested or up for the game
Avoid matches involving Pakistan - you never know when they're trying
Selections from this system will feature in the
Incidentally, I should mention that it is possible that a one day match
will be tied, in which case on Betfair, bets are cancelled and the stakes
are returned. This causes a great deal of anguish on the Betfair
website cricket forum when it happens
This developed from my ODI system, and is basically the same
principal. This time we're trading in Test Matches, and in this case
there are three outcomes, home win, away win or draw, which are all priced
up (it is possible to have a tie as well, not the same as a draw, but
there's only been two in over 100 years of test cricket so forget it)
The principal is the same as the ODI system except this time with three
outcomes you need to use the spreadsheet to calculate the stakes.
the toss can have a bearing, but now there is an extra complication - the
weather. In the build up to a test match the cricket forums are full
of threads about the weather and the chances of it influencing the
result. There are armies of people who do nothing else other than
back or lay the draw on the strength of the weather forecasts.
There's always someone on the forum claiming to live within 2 miles of the
ground. This can be highly amusing, it is rumoured that some TV
cameramen are in on the scam and go to work with a small watering can to
simulate rain for the viewers. John Kettley, a formally respectable
BBC weatherman now has his own private company which produces dodgy
forecasts to influence the draw price. My advice is to look at the
threads for a laugh, but to ignore them completely as far as betting
goes. Just watch the money.
Anyway, back to the system. What
I do is wait until the toss has been made, let the market settle, and then
back the favourite, at 1.02 * the current price. I use a progressive
staking plan described in my free
At this point use the spreadsheet (formulas) to calculate your stake on
the fav. For example if your target return is £400 and the odds I
want on the fav are 2.08, then the stake will be £186.92. One
slight complication is that the calculated odds will probably not be a
decimal number that you can select in Betfair odds. I just round up
to the next selectable number using the place bets box on Betfair, but
leave my stake as was calculated. Now you have to wait until the
match is in-play, normally as the first ball is bowled. At this
point jump in and get your bets in on the other two selections. Note
that the fav could be either team or the draw - this doesn't matter.
Selections from this system
will appear on the page
This is a low
risk, low return system which can be used successfully in a number of
sports. The system works like this
1) Pick a sport where the
favourite is odds-on
are Horserace, tennis match, cricket match, snooker match, football
under/over 2.5 goals.
2) The sport must be going
in-play on Betfair (indicated in their rules for each event)
3) You must be able to get
a bet on once it is in play. This means you have to be at your
computer, or select 'Keep In-Play' when you place the bet on Betfair
4) The staking I am using
will give approximately 5% profit if the 'favourite' wins and a break even
position if it gets beat. This is actually quite easy to do, you
simple back the favourite for a certain stake at the current odds, and
simultaneously lay it for the same stake at 8 ticks less than the current
5) With UK horse racing there is
sufficient fluctuation in prices in the time from 0800 till race time that
more often than not you will be fully matched before the race even starts.
system exploits the fluctuations in price that occur during a tennis match.
There are three things which will have a big impact on the price of the two
1) Break points, or even
more of an impact from a confirmed break
2) Winning a set
3) Any sign of a player
being injured and liable to retire (see my advice on this issue -
The price fluctuations are to my eyes out of
proportion compared to the actual chances of a player eventually winning or
losing the game, and this is where the system comes into its own.
The rules of the system are as follows-
1) Only bet in
run by the ATP, where there is in-play betting offered by Betfair.
These are easy to find just go into the tennis section of the Betfair site,
click on the coupons tab, and then click on 'Today's in-play tab').
2) Only bet in matches
where the price of the favourite is between 1.30 and 1.90, if there are many
matches in a day that fit the bill then tighten this to 1.50-1.70.
3) You bet
on the underdog will probably only be matched after the match has started so
make sure you select 'Keep In-Play' when you place the bet on Betfair.
4) Before the start of play
you need to check the prices offered by all your active bookmakers by using
You select the book offering the best price for the favourite. You
then use my trading spreadsheet to calculate your stakes. Enter the
odds for the favourite into cell i6, then calculate your required stake for
the underdog, by putting odds into cell h6, gradually altering them until
the net profit shown in cell k10 is 15% (or just over). You should end
up with something like what is shown below.
Odds after %
stake in euros
stake in dollars
Profit from this arbitrage:
5) So now you place your
bet on the favourite with the chosen book (which could be Betfair, or any
other of your active books), this can be done several hours before the match
6) Now put your bet on
the underdog at the calculated trading odds using Betfair, and making sure
you select 'Keep In-Play' when you place the bet.
is a development of the 5% trading system. In this case I
simultaneously back and lay the same selection with only 1 tic difference in
the price. A typical example is in a horse race. If the current
price for a horse is 4.5 to back and 4.6 to lay, I will back it to win at
4.6 and lay it to lose at 4.5 for the same stake. If the stake is £50
then the profit will be £5 it wins and break even if it loses.
As usual for trading you must select 'Keep In-play' for any bets which are
not matched immediately.
I usually do this with all the runners in a race
priced at less than 10.0 on Betfair. It's quite easy to scalp £5 per
race without really trying - because you will have had a free bet on all the
runners priced at less than 10.0, if a rag wins then you lose nothing.
I only use the system in events where there is an in-play market.
Other markets where I have used this system is the
under/over 2.5 goals in football, the opportunities are almost endless on
Betfair. This system will not feature in the Bet of the Day page,
there are simply too many bets per day.