Free Sports Betting Systems

Sports Betting is the part of this web-site that will be most familiar to most readers.  I guess we all started here.   This page has all the details for nine Free Betting Systems - just follow the links on the right to go straight to them..  Also the Sign-up Offers section shows you how to make money for free using Bookmakers Account Sign-up Offers.

The concept is very simple.  You fancy someone (or a team, or a horse to win in a certain competition).  Historically, a book maker would mark up the odds in a format such as 3/1, meaning that for every £1 you bet, you would win £3 if your selection won and lose £1 if it lost. 

Nowadays when betting on the internet it is normal to use decimal odds.  These are simpler to use when you get used to them, and are pretty well essential for trading and arbitraging.  The principal of decimal odds will be familiar to anyone who bets on the Tote.  The decimal odds is your return including your stake.  So, in the example above the decimal odds would be 4.0.

To clarify the difference between a bet, a trade and an arbitrage:

A bet is a single bet on the outcome of an event.  You either win or lose.

A trade is 2 or 3 bets covering all possible outcomes on both (or all three) outcomes of an event, using price differences over time (normally in-running).  This gives a profitable outcome whoever wins - if all the bets are matched.

An arb is 2 bets covering both possible outcomes of an event, using price differences at different books at the same time.  This gives a profitable outcome whoever wins.

For some bets you need to lay a selection rather than back it.  This can be confusing to some, so I have a section where this is explained.

In the beginning a sports bet was done when you fancied a horse (usually) to win an event, because you had studied the form, or someone on TV or a friend had tipped it.  Sometimes they won, more often they didn't.  Unless you were really good, or had some inside information, you wouldn't be making a long term profit out of it.  Now, all my direct betting is done using betting systems.  This brings good discipline and confidence to your betting, and you can become a sports authority in your chosen sports as your experience grows.  The systems are described below, with direct links on the right.

< 4 Goal System

Many of my bets and trades are based on a simple fact.  There are not as many goals in football matches as most people seem to think.  This system is simple.  Each day when there are matches being played in the English Premiership, or the French League 1 you go to the  website.  Once there you pick the league whichever of the above leagues you are interested in that day and click the predictions button, and look which matches it recommends as 'unders', this simply means that web-site is predicting less than 2.5 goals in the match.  Some people take a while to get their head round 1/2 goals in football matches, but it's actually straightforward.  It is designed to force only two outcomes.  If there's 2 goals it's less than 2.5, if there 3 it more than 2.5.  There is in effect no draw. 

For each of the matches where the outcome is under, select in turn the analysis button.  This gives each teams recent form.  You need to check the following to have a valid selection.  The bet is going to be that there will be less than 4 goal in the match, i.e. if there's 0-3 goals you win, if there are 4 or more you lose.  So you check the most recent 4 matches for each team, if any of these matches has 4 or more goals in it then there is no bet in this match.

Next, scroll down a bit to each teams scoring statistics.  Add up the average goals per game for the home team (scored and conceded), and add the average goals per game for the away team (scored and conceded).  An example is below, in this case the total is 4.37 (0.61+1.23+1.07+1.46)

If the total is less than 4.5 then you have a possible bet.  You need to half this number to give your prediction for the total goals in the match.  That's it.  I have learned since I've been running this system that certain teams let me down, so I avoid betting in any matches involving, Man Utd Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, and Aston Villa.  

I have noticed over the last few seasons that there are more goals in games during the last 10 games or so of the season, so an additional restriction is that there will be no bets in this system from Mid-March till the end of the season.

Now you've got a selection you need to go onto the Betfair site and select the match in the football menu, then select the total goals market.  You are going to lay <4 goals.  The staking plan is up to yourself, but an example of my staking plan on this system is shown in the     For details of laying on Betfair click here .  Bets generated from this system will appear on the page.

Online Casino

A great book on football spread betting is shown below

Lay of the Day System

This system is one I have developed in private for a couple of months.  It is to lay certain favourites to lose horse-races.  It's based on a suspicion of mine that many of the favourites are relatively under priced compared to their actual chance of winning because most punters are backers rather than layers, and they tend to be willing to take too short a price on a favourite.

  The rules are simple:-

1     The favourites price must be less than 3.0 on Betfair.

2     The horse must be carrying a weight penalty for a recent win (signified in the racecard by 6lb extra for example)

Using Sign-Up Offers to Give Free Money

This system demonstrates how easy it is to literally make free money using bookmakers sign-up offers.  All you need to do is open an account with the bookmakers I advise each day for the bet, place the bets listed to generate the sign-up bonus, then sit back and collect your guaranteed free money.

This is achieved by backing all possible outcomes with different bookmakers using a sign-up bonus with each bookmaker.  It's a variation on the arbitrage technique, but this time the free money comes from the sign-up bonus.

It's best to explain this using an example.  Newcastle are playing Man City and the prices on the under/over 2.5 goals market at two books are as follows

note 5% commission deducted from Betfair return

BOT FOR HORSE RACING

Note following a run of bad results I am no longer using this Bot.  I am leaving this section in the web-site so people can look at it and try it themselves, but be careful with the settings and start off with small stakes if you do.

Bots are a phenomena that has developed quite recently.  They are computer programs that place bets automatically on Betfair during a horse race based on fluctuating odds, and subject to certain criteria.  I do treat them with some caution, but I have started using one that is available as a free download from the website. 

This Bot works by looking at the odds on each horse (in-running).  There are configurable parameters to fine-tune the bot.  I recommend only using it for Jump racing in England, Scotland and Wales (not Ireland)

The first parameter is the maximum price to back at, I use a setting of 1.7.  Next is the required difference in price between the favourite and the second favourite.  I use a setting of 3.0

Next parameter is How long before the end of the race to bet.  The Bot will only place a bet near the end of the race.  Obviously the nearer the end the more chance you have of getting the winner, but the shorter the odds will be.  I use a setting of 32 seconds, which seems OK in Jump racing. 

The last parameter is How long the leader is a clear leader.   What happens during the race is that the Bot shows which horse is the favourite, then when you get inside your time for betting (parameter 2), it starts checking parameter 1 to see if another horse is close to the fav (price-wise), then if this is OK it starts a timer to determine when to place the bet.  This timer is the third parameter, I use a setting of 3.25 seconds.

This combination of settings enables you to get a bet on most jumping races at prices from 1.01 to 1.70, though most are less than 1.2.  The winning strike rate is good enough for some long winning runs, but there are too many losers, which is why I have stopped using it.

BACK - LAY BETTING

If you wanted to you could follow much of the advice on the site and make a profit without ever placing a lay bet.  However, this would be denying yourself some good opportunities.  Betfair was originally set-up to enable ordinary punters to become bookmakers and offer prices on sporting event to other punters.  It's true now that the big boys have moved in, and I guess quite a lot of the liquidity on Betfair in some sports is provided by Professional bookmakers.  This doesn't really matter, as an ordinary punter you can play the bookmaker and offer to lay selections at whatever price you choose.

It's really not that much different to backing something, except the odds are inverted, so backing at 3.0 is the same as laying at 1.5, this odds conversion is shown in my arbing

So if you lay something you are letting someone else back it to win at the odds you are offering, and if it loses you pick up the other punters stake.  If his selection wins, you pay him at the odds you've offered.  Most of my trades, bets and arbs are in events with only two possible outcomes, so backing one outcome is the same as laying the other in terms of outcome, but not necessarily in terms of odds.  For some betting systems such as the , you need to lay only. 

I guess the bit that confuses some people (and me when I  started) is knowing how much you stand to win or lose with a lay bet.  Betfair makes this quite simple, you click the pink side of the betting interface for your selection to bring up a pink lay screen in the 'place bets' area on the right hand side of the page.  You then type in the odds you wish to lay at, make sure the 'liability' box is checked, and type in the backers stake, this is how much the backer can put on at your odds.  You stand to win this amount.  You stand to lose the amount shown under the liability button.

HORSE OF THE DAY

SPREAD BETTING FOOTBALL SYSTEM

This is a new one I'm trying out for small stakes.  For the last 4 seasons I have done a spread bet covering the Premiership, which awards points to teams scoring 4 or more goals during the whole season.  It's called 'Going for Goals' on , and have the same thing with a different name.  It will be detailed here in August prior to the start of next football season.  I've made money on it every season. 

Whilst monitoring this season-long bet I have noticed each year that in April and May there are more goals/game scored in the Premiership then earlier in the season.  I don't know why, but it must be something to do with battling for points for Premiership/champions league/avoiding relegation means a more positive approach overall, and I always close the bet in mid-late March. 

The system in this section seeks to make some money out of this, by backing a large number of goals in total on a day when there are several Premiership or Championship matches.  I will be doing it using the spreads at either Sporting Index or IG Index (whichever has the best price). 

The bet is simple - it will be to buy the total goals on any day when the market is offered (normally when there are more than 3 games in a day.

I will start off with small stakes of £20/goal increasing using a staking plans, bets will be advised in the page.  Remember - this system only applies in the English Premiership and Championship in April and May.

EUROPEAN KNACKERED SYSTEM

This system is based on some data I have assessed, which shows that for teams from England and Scotland, they do relatively badly on their next domestic game after returning home from a mid-week game played away in Europe in the Champions League or EUFA cup.  I presume this is something to do with the after effects of having a relatively hard match against the best teams in Europe, they will have played a full strength side in Europe, and then maybe rest a couple for their next game, the players will be tired due to the travelling in some cases, the players may be mentally not right for a mundane league game after the thrills of Europe.  It doesn't really matter which, if any, of these apply, there is money to be had from this situation.

So, how do we profit from this.  Simple, just lay the team to lose on Betfair on their next domestic game after playing away in Europe.  Bets will be posted on the page.

INTELLITIPSTER FOOTBALL SYSTEM

Intellitipster is commercial software, available from .  It enables you to download all the results day-by-day from virtually any football league in the world.  The system also covers other sports such as baseball, basketball and ice hockey.  Then you can study the statistical analysis on the results for each league that you are interested in for the whole of the current season  to give, for example:-

% of matches under and over 2.5 goals

% of matches with each number of goals from 0-7

% of matches with the ten most frequently observed scores, in descending order

This information on its own can be very useful, earlier this season I noticed that there were practically no games in the French League 1 with more than 2.5 goals, so I was making money backing the unders on Betfair at about 1.8 on each game. Eventually, everyone on Betfair noticed the goal famine in France, and by Xmas the unders price had collapsed to about 1.5-1.6 for most games, not only that; more games were going over 2.5 goals.  I made a lot of money out of it from Sep-Dec, but gave up after the pro's moved in, and the value had gone.

The system in this section is based on another feature of Intellitipster - its forecasting.  You can select forthcoming games (in any league), and a % likelihood of each result is given.  For example, I am looking at it today on 6 April, and for this Sunday's Man Utd v Arsenal game the prediction is

Man Utd 60%, Draw 19%, Arsenal 21 %

These %ages can readily be converted into predicted decimal odds using the formula :-

Odds = 100/%age,

So for this game the predicted odds are Man Utd 100/60 = 1.66, Draw 100/19 = 5.26, Arsenal 100/21 = 4.76.

The current odds on Betfair (6th April) are Man Utd 2.2, Draw 3.3, Arsenal 3.95

Most of you will have guessed where this is heading by now !!

The system will comprise 2 filters, firstly a result with a > 50% chance as calculated by Intellitipster, and secondly the price on Betfair must be more than 20% greater than the predicted price.  So, in this example Man Utd are the pick (>50%), and the actual price is 2.2/1.66 = 1.32 times or 32% more than the predicted price.

This is a great example of value betting, you are backing something with a greater than 50% chance of winning at price more than 20% greater than the probability.  In the example above, in old money you're getting 6/5 about a 4/6 shot.  If you had one of these every day then soon you would be a millionaire.  I cannot think of any other example of where the predicted and actual odds can be compared in this way with such mathematical precision.

Bets will appear on the Bet of the Day page, I will be covering the major football leagues in Europe and MLB baseball betting, a recent but very successful addition to the Intellitipster portfolio

For a 15% discount on Intellitipster, enter the promotional code 'SPORTSWINNING15' when you order via their website

VALUE BETTING SYSTEM

This is a system which makes use of the value concept in betting.  In betting theory you should have a bet if the odds being offered are better than the chances of the selection winning, and conversely not have a bet if the odds are worse than the chances of winning.  For example on a roulette wheel if there were only 36 numbers (1-36), and the odds offered on any number are 35/1 so this would be a fair bet.  However all casinos have 1 or 2 zeros as well which gives them their edge and profit, because the odds offered are less than the mathematical chances of winning.  No staking plan or system can ever overcome these odds in the long run.

My system is nothing to do with roulette.  It does use the value concept.  I use various data sources to highlight where the price in the market is 'value' relative to the actual chance of the bet winning.

I will be recommending bets only with certain bookmakers, and it is possible that visitors can make these bets even more worth while by using the sign-up bonuses on offer at these bookmakers.  You can make a fair bit of money by using these sign-up bonuses, and then the next time this bookmaker is offering the value you can use your free bets from the sign-up bonus.

CRICKET CENTURIONS SYSTEM

This is a system I have been researching for some time.  There is often talk of batsmen in test matches getting out in the 'nervous nineties'; this may be so, but I had a theory that a lot of batsmen were out just after getting to a 100.  I have studied data from all the major test match countries going back about 15 years and the results are shown in the graph below.

This shows how many innings in each 20 run range were scored by batsmen who had reached a 100 (the 9 innings shown as 80-100 where actually all exactly 100).  This only includes the career record of batsmen who played in the most recent test for their country.  No matches involving Bangladesh or Zimbabwe are included for obvious reasons.  This is what is known in statistical circles as a non-normal distribution, meaning that all the tall bars are over to one side.  This actually proves my theory rather well, you can see that there are not that many occasions when scores greater than say 160 are made, and these are usually by the greatest of batsmen; Lara, Dravid, Tendulkar, Ponting etc.

"So what !" you may say, well I'll tell you what.

In many test matches the spread firms price up each batsman at the crease with how many runs they will make in their innings.  For the top 5 in the batting order the spread will typically start off at about 35 runs more than they already have, so if the batsman has 5 runs the spread will be something like 40-42.  This means you can 'buy' his runs at 42, and 'sell' them at 40.  So for instance if you buy at £3/run and he is out for 96, your profit is (96-42)*3 = £162, if you made the same bet and he is out for 10, you lose (42-10)*3 = £66.  Cricket would have been invented by the spread firms if it didn't already exist, it is so perfect for spread betting.

So this system will exploit the data shown above which shows that on average a 100 will be out for less than 130 by selling the batsman's runs as soon as he reaches a 100, by this time his spread will be something like 140-142.  You will have to be at your computer and logged into your spread betting account (e.g. Sporting Index - click on link to the right to open an account) as the batsmen is approaching 100 to use this system.  As a safeguard any batsmen who has ever previously had a test 200 will be excluded unless his last 5 centuries have not gone on past 150.  In addition I will maintain a list of 'all-time greats' who we won't mess with.  At present this includes the following

Dravid, Sehwag, Tendulakar, Ponting.  I will keep the list updated here.

I will put the selections up on the Bet of the Day page, but these are short term bets so unless you look at the right time you will miss them.