is the part of this web-site that
will be most familiar to most readers. I guess we all started here.
This page has all the details for nine Free
Betting Systems - just follow the links on the right to go straight to them..
Also the Sign-up Offers section shows you how to make money for free using
Bookmakers Account Sign-up Offers. The great
thing about sports betting is that you can greatly reduce the house edge by
applying the right strategies, in a same fashion as a good card counter is
able to reduce the house edge significantly in a blackjack game. While the
strategies are different in blackjack, identical concepts are often used.
For more on blackjack see Ace-Ten.com.
The concept is very simple. You fancy someone (or a team, or a
horse to win in a certain competition). Historically, a book maker
would mark up the odds in a format such as 3/1, meaning that for every £1
you bet, you would win £3 if your selection won and
lose £1 if it lost.
Nowadays when betting on the internet it is normal to use decimal
odds. These are simpler to use when you get used to them, and are
pretty well essential for trading and arbitraging. The principal of
decimal odds will be familiar to anyone who bets on the
decimal odds is your return including your stake. So, in the example
above the decimal odds would be 4.0.
To clarify the difference between a bet, a trade and an arbitrage:
A bet is a single bet on the outcome of an event. You either win
A trade is 2 or 3 bets covering all possible outcomes on both (or all
three) outcomes of an event, using price differences over time (normally
in-running). This gives a profitable outcome whoever wins - if all
the bets are matched.
An arb is 2 bets covering both possible outcomes of an event, using
price differences at different books at the same time. This gives a
profitable outcome whoever wins.
For some bets you need to lay a selection rather than back it.
This can be confusing to some, so I have a section where this is
In the beginning a sports bet was done when you fancied a
horse (usually) to win an event, because you had studied the form, or
someone on TV or a friend had tipped it. Sometimes they won, more
often they didn't. Unless you were really good, or had some inside
information, you wouldn't be making a long term profit out of it. Now,
all my direct betting is done using betting systems. This brings good
discipline and confidence to your betting, and you can
become a sports authority in your chosen sports as your experience grows. The
systems are described below,
with direct links on the right.
Many of my bets and trades are based on a simple fact. There are
not as many goals in football matches as most people seem to think.
This system is simple. Each day when there are matches being played
in the English Premiership, or the French League 1 you go to the
website. Once there you pick the league whichever of the above leagues you are
interested in that day and click the predictions button, and look which
matches it recommends as 'unders', this simply means that web-site is
predicting less than 2.5 goals in the match. Some people take a
while to get their head round 1/2 goals in football matches, but it's
actually straightforward. It is designed to force only two
outcomes. If there's 2 goals it's less than 2.5, if there 3 it more
than 2.5. There is in effect no draw.
For each of the matches where the outcome is under, select in turn the
analysis button. This gives each teams recent form. You need
to check the following to have a valid selection. The bet is going
to be that there will be less than 4 goal in the match, i.e. if there's
0-3 goals you win, if there are 4 or more you lose. So you check the
most recent 4 matches for each team, if any of these matches has 4 or more
goals in it then there is no bet in this match.
Next, scroll down a bit to each teams scoring statistics. Add up
the average goals per game for the home team (scored and conceded), and
add the average goals per game for the away team (scored and
conceded). An example is below, in this case the total is 4.37
Average goals scored
Average goals conceded
If the total is less than 4.5 then you have a possible bet. You
need to half this number to give your prediction for the total goals in
the match. That's it. I have learned since I've been running
this system that certain teams let me down, so I avoid betting in any
matches involving, Man Utd Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City,
and Aston Villa.
I have noticed over the last few seasons that there are more goals in
games during the last 10 games or so of the season, so an additional
restriction is that there will be no bets in this system from Mid-March till
the end of the season.
Now you've got a selection you need to go onto
the Betfair site and select the match in the football menu, then select the total goals
market. You are going to lay <4 goals. The staking plan is
up to yourself, but an example of my staking plan on this system is shown
in the For details of laying on Betfair click here
. Bets generated from this system will appear on the
A great book on football spread betting is shown below
This system demonstrates how easy it is to literally
make free money using bookmakers sign-up offers. All you need to do is
open an account with the bookmakers I advise each day for the bet, place the
bets listed to generate the sign-up bonus, then sit back and collect your
guaranteed free money.
This is achieved by backing all possible outcomes
with different bookmakers using a sign-up bonus with each bookmaker.
It's a variation on the arbitrage technique, but this time the free money
comes from the sign-up bonus.
It's best to explain this using an example.
Newcastle are playing Man City and the prices on the under/over 2.5 goals
market at two books are as follows
Under 2.5 goals
note 5% commission deducted
from Betfair return
RISK FREE PROFIT
plus Total FREE BETS
So just from opening the accounts at Betfred and
Betfair, and by placing the bets listed above and you will make a profit of
at least £18.65, AND you will now have a free bet of £100 to place on
any event you like with Betfred. Even if you've already got a Betfair account and
don't get the Betfair cashback you will show a loss of up to a maximum of
£6.35 in this example, but you would then have a free bet of £100 to place
with Betfred, which you could lay off on Betfair to ensure a decent profit
overall. If you can't work out the sums yourself just keep coming back
to my Bet of the Day and within a few days there will be another pair of
bets with recommended stakes at whichever Bookmaker (+Betfair) you have a
free bet with. You really cannot go
wrong using this technique. I know plenty of people who have
generated over £2000 without risking any of their own money. I will list one most days on the Bet of
the Day page. Note if you are opening an account with Betfair then use
the promotional code
3UYAYKCG7 on the account opening form - you must do this
to collect your £25 cashback.
If you wanted to you could follow much of the advice on the site and
make a profit without ever placing a lay bet. However, this would be
denying yourself some good opportunities. Betfair was originally
set-up to enable ordinary punters to become bookmakers and offer prices on
sporting event to other punters. It's true now that the big boys
have moved in, and I guess quite a lot of the liquidity on Betfair in some
sports is provided by Professional bookmakers. This doesn't really
matter, as an ordinary punter you can play the bookmaker and offer to lay
selections at whatever price you choose.
It's really not that much different to backing something, except the
odds are inverted, so backing at 3.0 is the same as laying at 1.5, this
odds conversion is shown in my arbing
So if you lay something you are letting someone else back it to win at
the odds you are offering, and if it loses you pick up the other punters
stake. If his selection wins, you pay him at the odds you've offered.
Most of my trades, bets and arbs are in events with only two possible
outcomes, so backing one outcome is the same as laying the other in terms
of outcome, but not necessarily in terms of odds. For some betting
systems such as
the , you need to lay only.
I guess the bit that confuses
some people (and me when I started) is knowing how much you stand to
win or lose with a lay bet. Betfair makes this quite simple, you
click the pink side of the betting interface for your selection to bring
up a pink lay screen in the 'place bets' area on the right hand side of
the page. You then type in the odds you wish to lay at, make sure
the 'liability' box is checked, and type in the backers stake, this is how
much the backer can put on at your odds. You stand to win this
amount. You stand to lose the amount shown under the liability
Sometimes you will need to do a Back-Lay conversion, this is
when you are trading or arbing, and you are laying a selection, but need
to enter this into the arbing spreadsheet as a 'back' bet to enable calculation
of stakes. All you need to do is put the lay odds into cell G18 of
the spreadsheet, and the equivalent back odds are shown in column H18, you
then need to type this number into cell H6, your liability is what should
go in the cell H7, and this can be calculated by putting the required
liability into cell J18 which gives a backers stake to put into the Betfair
lay position. It probably sounds complicated, but it's not that bad
when you've done it a few times.
For the last 4 seasons I have done a spread bet covering the
Premiership, which awards points to teams scoring 4 or more goals during the
It's called 'Going for Goals' on
and IG Index have the same thing with a different name. It will be detailed
here in August prior to the start of next football season. I've made
money on it every season.
Whilst monitoring this season-long bet I have noticed each year that in April and May there are more goals/game
scored in the Premiership then earlier in the season. I don't know
why, but it must be something to do with battling for points for
Premiership/champions league/avoiding relegation means a more positive
approach overall, and I always close the bet in mid-late March.
The system in this section seeks to make some money out of
this, by backing a large number of goals in total on a day when there are
several Premiership or Championship matches. I will be doing it using the spreads at either Sporting Index or IG Index (whichever has the best price).
The bet is simple - it will be to buy the total goals on any day when the
market is offered (normally when there are more than 3 games in a day.
I will start off with small stakes of £20/goal increasing using a staking
plans, bets will be advised in the
page. Remember - this system only applies in the English Premiership
and Championship in April and May.
This system is based on some data I have assessed, which shows that for
teams from England and Scotland, they do relatively badly on their next
domestic game after returning home from a mid-week game played away in
Europe in the Champions League or EUFA cup. I presume this is
something to do with the aftereffects of having a relatively hard match
against the best teams in Europe, they will have played a full strength side
in Europe, and then maybe rest a couple for their next game, the players
will be tired due to the travelling in some cases, the players may be
mentally not right for a mundane league game after the thrills of Europe.
It doesn't really matter which, if any, of these apply, there is money to be
had from this situation.
So, how do we profit from this. Simple, just lay the team to lose
on Betfair on their next domestic game after playing away in Europe.
Bets will be posted on the
Intellitipster is commercial software, available
It enables you to download all the results day-by-day
from virtually any football
league in the world. The system also covers other
sports such as baseball, basketball and ice hockey. Then you can study the statistical analysis on
the results for each league that you are interested in for the whole of the
current season to give, for example:-
% of matches under and over 2.5 goals
% of matches with each number of goals from 0-7
% of matches with the ten
most frequently observed scores, in descending order
This information on its own can be very useful, earlier this season I
noticed that there were practically no games in the French League 1 with
more than 2.5 goals, so I was making money backing the unders on Betfair
at about 1.8 on each game. Eventually, everyone on Betfair noticed the goal
famine in France, and by
Xmas the unders price had collapsed to about 1.5-1.6 for most games, not only
that; more games were going over 2.5 goals. I made a lot of money out of it
from Sep-Dec, but gave up after the pro's moved in, and the value had gone.
The system in this section is based on another feature
of Intellitipster - its forecasting. You can select forthcoming games
(in any league), and a % likelihood of each result is given. For
example, I am looking at it today on 6 April, and for this Sunday's Man Utd
v Arsenal game the prediction is
Man Utd 60%, Draw 19%, Arsenal 21 %
These %ages can readily be converted into predicted decimal odds using
the formula :-
Odds = 100/%age,
So for this game the predicted odds are Man Utd 100/60 = 1.66, Draw
100/19 = 5.26, Arsenal 100/21 = 4.76.
The current odds on Betfair (6th April) are Man Utd 2.2, Draw 3.3,
Most of you will have guessed where this is heading by now !!
The system will comprise 2 filters, firstly a result
with a > 50% chance as calculated by Intellitipster, and secondly the price
on Betfair must be more than 20% greater than the predicted price. So,
in this example Man Utd are the pick (>50%), and the actual price is
2.2/1.66 = 1.32 times or 32% more than the predicted price.
This is a great example of value betting, you are backing something with
a greater than 50% chance of winning at price more than 20% greater than the
probability. In the example above, in old money you're getting 6/5
about a 4/6 shot. If you had one of these every day then soon you
would be a millionaire. I cannot think of any other example of where
the predicted and actual odds can be compared in this way with such
Bets will appear on the Bet of the Day page,
I will be covering the major football leagues in Europe
and MLB baseball betting, a recent but very successful addition to the
This is a
system which makes use of the value concept in betting. In betting
theory you should have a bet if the odds being offered are better than the
chances of the selection winning, and conversely not have a bet if the odds
are worse than the chances of winning. For example on a roulette wheel
if there were only 36 numbers (1-36), and the odds offered on any number are
35/1 so this would be a fair bet. However all
casinos have 1 or 2
zeros as well which gives them their edge and profit, because the odds
offered are less than the mathematical chances of winning. No staking
plan or system can ever overcome these odds in the long run.
My system is nothing to do with
online roulette. It
does use the value concept. I use various data sources to highlight
where the price in the market is 'value' relative to the actual chance of
the bet winning.
I will be recommending bets only with certain
bookmakers, and it is possible that visitors can make these bets even more
worth while by using the sign-up bonuses on offer at these bookmakers.
You can make a fair bit of money by using these sign-up bonuses, and then
the next time this bookmaker is offering the value you can use your free
bets from the sign-up bonus.
This is a system I have been researching for some
time. There is often talk of batsmen in test matches getting out in
the 'nervous nineties'; this may be so, but I had a theory that a lot of
batsmen were out just after getting to a 100. I have studied data from
all the major test match countries going back about 15 years and the results
are shown in the graph below.
This shows how many innings in each 20 run range
were scored by batsmen who had reached a 100 (the 9 innings shown as 80-100
where actually all exactly 100). This only includes the career record
of batsmen who played in the most recent test for their country. No
matches involving Bangladesh or Zimbabwe are included for obvious reasons.
This is what is known in statistical circles as a non-normal distribution,
meaning that all the tall bars are over to one side. This actually
proves my theory rather well, you can see that there are not that many
occasions when scores greater than say 160 are made, and these are usually
by the greatest of batsmen; Dravid, Tendulkar, Ponting etc.
"So what !" you may say, well I'll tell you what.
In many test matches the spread firms price up each
batsman at the crease with how many runs they will make in their innings.
For the top 5 in the batting order the spread will typically start off at
about 35 runs more than they already have, so if the batsman has 5 runs the
spread will be something like 40-42. This means you can 'buy' his runs
at 42, and 'sell' them at 40. So for instance if you buy at £3/run and
he is out for 96, your profit is (96-42)*3 = £162, if you made the
same bet and he is out for 10, you lose (42-10)*3 = £66. Cricket would
have been invented by the spread firms if it didn't already exist, it is so
perfect for spread betting.
So this system will exploit the data shown above
which shows that on average a 100 will be out for less than 130 by selling
the batsman's runs as soon as he reaches a 100, by this time his spread will
be something like 140-142. You will have to be at your computer and logged into
your spread betting account (e.g. Sporting Index - click on link to the
right to open an account) as the batsmen is approaching 100 to use this
system. As a safeguard any batsmen who has ever previously had a test
200 will be excluded unless his last 5 centuries have not gone on past 150.
In addition I will maintain a list of 'all-time greats' who we won't mess
with. At present this includes the following
Sangakarra, Amla, Chanderpaul, Kallis, De Villiers,
Michael Clarke, Graeme Smith, Younus Khan,
I will keep the list updated here.
I will put the selections up on the Bet of the Day
page, but these are short term bets so unless you look at the right time you
will miss them.